Confidently Wrong

11.17.20 4:18 PM

The virtue in pressing forward, confidently, even in the face of uncertainty.

I was sitting, a few weeks ago, with friends, and we were talking and unwinding after a long week's work. An astrophysicist, an engineer, a lawyer, and a business executive, a table adorned with a beer, a glass of wine, whiskey on the rocks, and an iced tea, relaxing and enjoying the reprise they had earned (I will leave it to your imagination to pair the drink with the profession). Somehow, the conversation steered towards Disney's Tarzan movie from 1999, and, as a remark to the conversation at hand, I confidently asserted that Tarzan was set in South America. Truth be told, the only logic behind my assumption was that the jungles portrayed in the movie most closely resembled those that I had seen in South America, but I was confident in my assertion all the same. I was corrected, after some laughter, and it was pointed out that the gorillas (one of the main characters of the movie) do not live in South America, but in South Africa; I still pulled out my phone to search up the truth, and was surprised to find myself wrong.

Have you been confidently wrong in your life?

Besides the embarrassment of my mistake, being confidently wrong was a benefit, not a hindrance. There are, obviously, several industries and realms in which approaching each situation with undue confidence can be detrimental - I would not want my doctor to be confidently wrong about anything - but in the world of business, it is often the case that a singular correct answer exists. Instead, the entrepreneurs of the world endeavor to find better and better solutions to ever-existing problems, with no scientifically pre-conceived notion that the answer they come to is "correct" so much as it is applicable. If there were a correct answer to business problems, the model would have been adopted worldwide, and no business problem (or at least most business problems) would cease to exist. The correct answer for a specific business problem in one locale may not work for a business of the same industry and market segment in another. A franchised restaurant is a particularly great example of this, as one sushi restaurant may thrive and continue to grow, whereas its brother, given the same business plan, processes, suppliers, atmosphere requirements, and so on, dies. How, then, can I say that being confidently wrong is a virtue in business?

Let us step back from the question, for a moment, and acknowledge a couple of truths that predicate my claim. Firstly, confident or not, making the wrong decision in business does have a consequence. The size or severity of the impact notwithstanding, confidence in a decision does not magically remove any risk in executing any business plan proposed. It is a truth, especially of the free market we strive to build, that the weaker businesses, or those that make the wrong decision more frequently, will not be able to sustain themselves, and will have to close their doors. Secondly, confidence and arrogance present themselves similarly, but have monumentally different effects. Had I arrogantly stated that the Tarzan film was irrelevant to our discussion, because of its (in)correct location, the atmosphere of the table would not have been a jest and poke at my expense, and corrections being made. Instead, I imagine, that the standoffishness of an arrogant, and incorrect, claim would have lead to some awkward silence, as my compatriots quietly thought about what an ass I was being, or a more intense and heated debate in which feelings were hurt and egos attacked. It is always better to be the student than the master, as the student's ignorance is acceptable, but it is an affront to assign credence to a master that is arrogantly incorrect. Third, and lastly, the company in which I surround myself is not a collection of yes-men. Their prestigious titles aside, their nature is such that they would not let me make a public fool of myself (they reserve that for letting me do it in private), nor would they agree with anything I said simply on the virtue of the facts that it is I who said it, or said it confidently. An atmosphere of support, respect, and intellect that nurtures 'good' ideas, and rebukes those deemed 'bad' is incomparably useful versus that of an atmosphere of conflict-avoiding yes-men.

Part of the ability to be confident in the execution of any business process is to know and trust in the development of the plan

Many a great philosopher, business, and poet have quotes attributed to this notion of executing business confidently wrong. Toyota refers to it as 'plan carefully, execute rapidly,' Sun Tzu attributes it to "the general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought," Ben Franklin said failing to plan was the same as planning to fail. Whomsoever you wish to herald as your personal mentor, the theory remains unchanged: there are many uncertainties in business (and life, generally), but the ones who fail are not the ones who execute a plan, it is the ones who remain passive and reactive. You might recognize, especially if you take a moment to look through some inspirational quotes online about planning and being wrong, that there is an acute absence of sayings that chastise a planner for when things go astray; you will, in fact, find that "the best laid plans of mice and men often go astray" (Steinbeck), but the moral of any such quote is not that one should not expend the energy even to try, therefore, but only to adapt, persevere, learn, overcome, and grow.


An important caveat exists that I alluded to earlier, that is a critical component of going forth in business and being confidently wrong. It could be called a sounding board, a check-and-balance, an external conscience or, as I described it, an atmosphere of open idea debate that nurtures or rebukes appropriately. Part of the ability to be confident in the execution of any business process is to know and trust in the development of the plan. Despite industry specific cases that appear too complex to brainstorm solutions with industry outsiders, that is most certainly not the case. Business, at its core, is business, independent of the label it wears. Problems that present themselves tend to do so across many industries, and by exposing yourself to the insight of others, the merit (or demerit, as the case may be) of any solution you contrive will be put to the test. Properly discussing possible solutions, problems, and incorporating the insight of more than just your staff - which, if you are the boss, are likely to be yes-men - will give you the confidence in a plan that has taken as many variables into account, and has the highest chance of success. With a well-developed plan in hand, you can go forth into the business world, and be confidently wrong.

(Author's Note: BMI has put together a group explicitly for acting as a sounding board for businesses and business owners across a wide variety of industries. If you wish to join, or want more information, drop us a line and ask about the VIPs Group.)